SCAE v3.2.1UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO // EXERCISE — EXERCISE — EXERCISE2026-03-07 12:20:02Z
Strategic Command Center

Executive Dashboard

U.S.-Iran Crisis — Strait of Hormuz Incident Response

WATCHCON 2 — HEIGHTENED ALERT
Last Updated: 0430Z 07 MAR 2026
12 AI Agents Active | 8 Risk Vectors Tracked
Active Assumptions
7
1 challenged
Tracked Actors
6
4 state actors
Effect Channels
10
Cross-domain
Active Dissents
5
Unresolved
Crisis PostureCurrent Assessment
WATCHCON 2

Heightened alert — Significant indicators of escalation; enhanced monitoring and posture adjustment

ROUTINEIMMINENT
Next-Probable MovesBroad Categories
Iran
24-48h65%

Continued Strait harassment with escalatory signaling

U.S.
12-24h70%

Enhanced naval escort operations; diplomatic messaging

Houthis
48-72h55%

Anti-ship demonstration or Red Sea provocation

GCC States
24h80%

Private diplomatic outreach to both sides

China
24-48h75%

Public call for restraint; private energy supply assurances

Top Risks & Tail Risks8 Active
Strait of Hormuz Disruption
CRITICAL
Proxy Network Activation
HIGH
Nuclear Program Acceleration
HIGH
Cyber Escalation
ELEVATED
Alliance Cohesion Fracture
ELEVATED
Energy Market Shock
HIGH
Humanitarian Crisis
MODERATE
Domestic Political Backlash
ELEVATED
What Changed Since Last BriefLive Feed
MARITIME2026-03-07 04:30Z

IRGC fast boat activity in Strait increased to 3x baseline; two incidents of close approach to commercial vessels

FINANCIAL2026-03-07 02:15Z

Brent crude futures up $4.20 to $86.40; war risk insurance premiums for Gulf transit doubled in 48 hours

DIPLOMATIC2026-03-06 22:00Z

Oman back-channel reports Iranian willingness to discuss incident de-escalation framework; credibility assessment pending

INTELLIGENCE2026-03-06 18:45Z

Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Bandar Abbas naval base; submarine pen activity noted

DOMESTIC2026-03-06 14:20Z

Senate Armed Services Committee chair requests classified briefing; House resolution on WPR consultation introduced

PROXY2026-03-06 10:00Z

Houthi forces test-fired anti-ship ballistic missile into Red Sea; no vessel targeted; assessed as signaling