SCAE v3.2.1UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO // EXERCISE — EXERCISE — EXERCISE2026-03-07 12:20:06Z

Actor Map & Incentive Model

Strategic-level actor profiles with objectives, constraints, and internal dynamics

Relationship DynamicsState Actors
U.S. ExecutiveIranian GovernmentGulf CooperationPeople's Republic
U.S. ExecutiveADVERSARIALALLIEDCOMPLEX
Iranian GovernmentADVERSARIALNEUTRALCOMPLEX
Gulf CooperationALLIEDNEUTRALCOMPLEX
People's RepublicCOMPLEXCOMPLEXCOMPLEX

U.S. Executive Branch

STATE|Risk Tolerance: MODERATE

"Defending freedom of navigation and regional stability"

Iranian Government

STATE|Risk Tolerance: MODERATE

"Defending sovereignty against imperial aggression"

Gulf Cooperation Council States

STATE|Risk Tolerance: LOW

"Seeking regional stability and dialogue"

Iran-Aligned Non-State Actors

NON STATE|Risk Tolerance: HIGH

"Resistance against occupation and imperialism"

Global Energy Markets

MARKET|Risk Tolerance: LOW

"Markets reflect fundamentals"

People's Republic of China

STATE|Risk Tolerance: LOW

"Advocate for dialogue and multilateral solutions"