General-Equilibrium Effects Engine
Second- and third-order effects across economic, political, and social systems
Transmission Channel Overview
Strait DisruptionOil/LNG PricesShipping/InsuranceInflationEquitiesDomestic ApprovalAlliance Cohesion
Cyber OperationsFinancial System StressEquities|Refugee FlowsAlliance Burden-SharingCoalition Fracture Risk
Energy Domain
Energy
Crude Oil Price
Current$82/bbl
Projected$95-135/bbl
Energy
LNG Spot Price
Current$12/MMBtu
Projected$18-28/MMBtu
Maritime Domain
Maritime
Shipping Rates (VLCC)
CurrentWS 55
ProjectedWS 85-150
Maritime
War Risk Insurance Premium
Current0.05% hull value
Projected1.5-5.0% hull value
Macro Domain
Macro
U.S. CPI Impact
Current+0.0%
Projected+0.3-1.2%
Financial Domain
Financial
S&P 500 Impact
Current0%
Projected-5% to -15%
Domestic Domain
Domestic
Presidential Approval
Current44%
Projected38-52%
Diplomatic Domain
Diplomatic
Allied Coalition Cohesion
CurrentStrong
ProjectedModerate-Weak
Humanitarian Domain
Humanitarian
Displacement Risk
CurrentBaseline
Projected500K-2M displaced
Technology Domain
Technology
Cyber Disruption Cost
Current$0
Projected$2B-15B
Mechanism Detail: Crude Oil Price
Transmission Mechanism
Supply disruption risk premium + physical flow reduction
Value Range
$82/bbl
$95-135/bbl
Inbound Transmission Channels (1)
Shipping Rates (VLCC)Crude Oil Price
Transportation cost addition
MODERATE1-2 weeks
Outbound Transmission Channels (3)
Crude Oil PriceU.S. CPI Impact
Energy cost pass-through
STRONG2-4 weeks
Crude Oil PriceS&P 500 Impact
Earnings revision + sentiment
STRONGImmediate
Crude Oil PricePresidential Approval
Gas price visibility
MODERATE4-8 weeks
HIGH Confidence Assessment
Assessment based on well-established empirical relationships and recent market data. Historical precedent strongly supports projected range.
All Transmission Channels10 Active
Crude Oil PriceU.S. CPI Impact
Energy cost pass-through
STRONG2-4 weeks
Crude Oil PriceS&P 500 Impact
Earnings revision + sentiment
STRONGImmediate
Crude Oil PricePresidential Approval
Gas price visibility
MODERATE4-8 weeks
Shipping Rates (VLCC)Crude Oil Price
Transportation cost addition
MODERATE1-2 weeks
War Risk Insurance PremiumShipping Rates (VLCC)
Direct cost component
STRONGImmediate
LNG Spot PriceAllied Coalition Cohesion
European energy security pressure
MODERATE2-4 weeks
U.S. CPI ImpactPresidential Approval
Consumer sentiment erosion
MODERATE4-12 weeks
Allied Coalition CohesionPresidential Approval
Diplomatic isolation narrative
WEAK2-4 weeks
Cyber Disruption CostS&P 500 Impact
Systemic risk repricing
MODERATEImmediate
Displacement RiskAllied Coalition Cohesion
Burden-sharing disputes
MODERATE4-8 weeks