SCAE v3.2.1UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO // EXERCISE — EXERCISE — EXERCISE2026-04-21 17:38:30Z

Effects Engine

Second- and third-order effects across economic, political, and social systems.

REGNHIGH
WATCHCON 1
Confidence
Effects Network Graph10 nodes · 12 links
Energy cost pass-through to CP...Earnings revision for energy-i...Gas price visibility at pump; ...Transportation cost addition t...Cross-commodity substitution a...ENECrude Oil Price ...ENELNG Spot Price (...MARShipping Rates (...MARWar Risk Insuran...MACU.S. CPI Impact ...FINS&P 500 ImpactDOMPresidential App...DIPAllied Coalition...HUMDisplacement / H...TECCyber Disruption...StrongModerateWeakEnergyMaritimeMacroFinancialDomesticDiplomaticHumanitarianTechnology
Network Connectivity
Crude Oil Pric..Presidential A..S&P 500 ImpactAllied Coaliti..LNG Spot Price..Shipping Rates..U.S. CPI Impac..War Risk Insur..Displacement /..Cyber Disrupti..02468
Connectivity vs. Confidence
Bubble = inbound channels
024680255075100
Mechanism Detail: Crude Oil Price (Brent)
HIGH
Transmission Mechanism

Physical supply disruption (90% Hormuz closure) + risk premium. Up 76% YTD from $61.41. Reuters: could hit $200 if Kharg Island struck. Oil swinging $35/day. CNBC: Asia/Europe face fuel shortages.

Value Range
$108-114/bbl
$120-200/bbl
Inbound Channels (1)
Shipping Rates (VLCC AG-East)Crude Oil Price (Brent)

Transportation cost addition to delivered crude price

MODERATE1-2 weeks
Outbound Channels (4)
Crude Oil Price (Brent)U.S. CPI Impact (annualized)

Energy cost pass-through to CPI via gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals

STRONG2-4 weeks
Crude Oil Price (Brent)S&P 500 Impact

Earnings revision for energy-intensive sectors; consumer discretionary compression

STRONGImmediate
Crude Oil Price (Brent)Presidential Approval Rating

Gas price visibility at pump; consumer sentiment erosion

MODERATE4-8 weeks
Crude Oil Price (Brent)LNG Spot Price (JKM)

Cross-commodity substitution and sentiment contagion

MODERATE1-2 weeks