SCAE v3.2.1UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO // EXERCISE — EXERCISE — EXERCISE2026-04-27 08:43:38Z

Game Tree

Interactive decision tree with scenario-driven probabilities. Snapshot a baseline, then adjust sliders to compare.

HUMRHIGH
Probabilities driven by Scenario Lab sliders
Off-Ramp Decision Escalation
Capture current state, then adjust sliders to compare
33% | 17 nodes | 16 edges | WATCHCON 1 | ESC 80%
SystemCURRENT STATE: Day 28 — Mult...Operation Epic Fury Day 28. 9,000+ targets... struck. 90% Hormuz closure. Houthis e...3 responses →U.S.16%-9Ceasefire Push (Rubio 'Weeks...U.S. accepts modified ceasefire framework ...via Omani channel; Hormuz reopening as...2 responses →OFF-RAMPIran20%-10Iran Accepts FrameworkIran accepts modified ceasefire with condi...tions: reparations discussion, soverei...Iran84%+14Iran Rejects / StallsIran rejects or stalls negotiations while ...continuing military operations. Uses d...1 response →System81%+26Escalation SpiralTit-for-tat cycle continues; four theaters... active; WPR deadline approaches; huma...2 responses →System78%+23Regional Conflagration / Glo...Multi-front war across all theaters; oil a...bove $150-200; global recession; 5M+ d...TERMINALOFF-RAMPSystem5%-15Negotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman/Qatar p...roduce ceasefire; Hormuz reopens under...U.S.54%+4Sustained Pressure (Current ...Continue operations at current intensity; ...maintain Hormuz pressure; push April 6...2 responses →Iran71%+16Iranian Attrition StrategyIran absorbs strikes while maintaining pro...xy pressure and Hormuz closure. Bets o...1 response →System71%+21WPR Deadline Crisis (April 2...60-day WPR deadline forces political recko...ning. Congress must authorize or presi...2 responses →OFF-RAMPSystem5%-15Negotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman/Qatar p...roduce ceasefire; Hormuz reopens under...System78%+23Regional Conflagration / Glo...Multi-front war across all theaters; oil a...bove $150-200; global recession; 5M+ d...TERMINALIran65%+20Iranian Counter-EscalationIran escalates: strikes on Gulf state infr...astructure (Saudi Aramco, UAE ports); ...1 response →System78%+23Regional Conflagration / Glo...Multi-front war across all theaters; oil a...bove $150-200; global recession; 5M+ d...TERMINALU.S.44%+19Escalation to Kharg Island /...Strike Kharg Island (90% of Iran's oil exp...orts); consider limited ground operati...1 response →Iran96%+11Total War ResponseIf Kharg Island struck: ballistic missiles... on Gulf state oil infrastructure; ful...1 response →System78%+23Regional Conflagration / Glo...Multi-front war across all theaters; oil a...bove $150-200; global recession; 5M+ d...TERMINAL
Node Analysis
G-ROOT

CURRENT STATE: Day 28 — Multi-Front War

System
Scenario Description

Operation Epic Fury Day 28. 9,000+ targets struck. 90% Hormuz closure. Houthis enter war. Hezbollah 55+ attacks. 1,900+ killed in Iran. Oil at $108-114. Iran rejects ceasefire. WPR Day 28 of 60.

PROBABILITY ANALYSISSCENARIO-DRIVEN
BASE PROBABILITY
50%
SCENARIO-ADJUSTED
50% 0
0%100%
HIGH Confidence

Well-supported by historical precedent and current intelligence indicators.

Possible Responses (3)
Ceasefire Push (Rubio 'Weeks Not Months')
25%

U.S. accepts modified ceasefire framework via Omani channel; Hormuz reopening as precondition; phased sanctions relief; proxy ceasefire; face-saving measures. Rubio's timeline suggests this is preferred.

Sustained Pressure (Current Trajectory)
50%

Continue operations at current intensity; maintain Hormuz pressure; push April 6 deadline; seek WPR authorization from Congress; $1-2B/day operational cost continues

Escalation to Kharg Island / Ground Ops
25%

Strike Kharg Island (90% of Iran's oil exports); consider limited ground operations; Ali Vaez warns this 'could cause global economic meltdown'; oil to $150-200

Game-Theoretic Concepts
Incomplete InformationSignalingCommitment ProblemReputation EffectsMisperception Risk