Scenario Builder
Adjust assumptions and explore scenario ensembles
Back-channel negotiations succeed; incident contained; gradual de-escalation with face-saving measures for both sides
Tit-for-tat exchanges with calibrated responses; partial Strait disruption; sanctions intensification; eventual negotiated framework
Miscalculation or domestic political pressure drives both sides past intended limits; multi-front conflict; significant economic disruption
Full regional conflagration; Strait closure; global energy crisis; nuclear program acceleration; humanitarian catastrophe; alliance fracture
Willingness of key decision-makers to accept escalation risk
Strength of allied consensus and willingness to support U.S. posture
Intensity and scope of economic pressure campaign
Level of Iran-aligned non-state actor operations
Degree of Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping interference
Quality and reliability of intelligence assessments
Supply-demand balance stress in global energy markets
Scale and impact of cyber operations by all parties
Availability and credibility of informal negotiation channels
Intensity of domestic political constraints on decision-making
Composite index reflecting escalation risk, disruption potential, and constraint pressure
No deviations from preset
No parameters above threshold