Scenario Lab
Adjust parameters and observe downstream consequences in real time.
HISTHIGH
WATCHCON 1 — IMMINENT HOSTILITIES
Presets
Parameters10 variables
Leadership Risk Tolerance
75Willingness of senior leadership to accept escalation risk
Alliance Cohesion
30Strength of allied coalition consensus and burden-sharing
Sanctions Severity
85Intensity of economic sanctions and secondary enforcement
Proxy Activity Intensity
90Level of Iran-aligned non-state actor operations
Maritime Disruption
92Degree of Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping disruption
Intelligence Confidence
25Reliability of intelligence assessments driving decisions
Oil Market Tightness
90Supply-demand balance and price pressure in global oil markets
Cyber Disruption
60Severity of cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure
Diplomatic Backchannel
15Viability and credibility of back-channel negotiations
Domestic Political Pressure
80Intensity of domestic political pressure on decision-makers
Consequence Chain
Live computationOil Price Premium
+106$/bbl
CRITICALAlliance Stress Index
87/100
CRITICALEscalation Probability
83%
CRITICALIntelligence Gap
75%
HIGHCyber Exposure
63/100
HIGHApproval Trajectory
18%
CRITICALParameter Radar — Current vs. Presets
- Ceasefire by Mid-April
- Protracted Conflict (Current Trajectory)
- Escalation to Kharg Island / Ground Operations
- Regional Conflagration / Global Economic Meltdown
- Current
Sensitivity Analysis(Which parameters matter most?)